Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
- - My take on Mickelson last week was summed up by Johnny Miller’s observation on the 72nd hole that Phil’s game has looked really good all through his bag, starting with his driver. Gary Koch also noted several times that all week his new swing was producing a much more piercing ball flight, with none of the “pop ups” he’s been prone to. Bones says he’s never seen Phil working harder, and Phil in his own words stated the swing has been on plane for quite a while, but he didn’t have the club face awareness down from hip high to hip high, but the awareness showed up last week and he was hitting little fades and little draws with his driver like he does with his irons. It also appeared to me he was standing over his short putts for a noticeably longer few moments, and I don’t know what that might have been about, but he was rolling them in smartly. IMO this week will not be a case of one step back after two steps forward, and I like this play as much or more than 40/1 last week.
Lucas Glover(110/1) e.w.
- - Torrey Pines is the venue in 2006 when I first took notice of Lucas and thought he demonstrated something languid and loping in his swing and demeanor that suggested to me he had what I have always referred to as “a big boy game for big boy venues - and the majors.” I was right about that at least once at Bethpage. Ever since I’ve always fancied Glover at Torrey Pines (along the same lines but for different rerasons I always thought Phil would win at Augusta, and often been on board with Boo Weekley at Hilton Head, Stuart Appleby at Firestone, Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua, Luke Donald at Riviera, Brandt Snedeker at Augusta, Charles Howell at Torrey Pines (even with skinny odds and so frequently a bridesmaid, rarely a bride), Ross Fisher at Wentworth, and some others which escape me) . . . As for last week, the take I posted on Lucas from lots of play late in calendar year 2015 was “Glover's wedges seem worse than his putter at the moment, which is not an endorsement.” But last week I was pleasantly surprised by his steady production at a birdie fest alongside hacking amateurs, so maybe this week it all comes together.
Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
- -
Shane Lowry(80/1) e.w.
- - Nothing too recent in personal observations for me to draw on, but nothing too distant either, and I can see a fit . . . And FWIW his last outing at Nedbank seems bizarre to me, finishing 25th with a stat line on tour-tips of 8/2/26/25/6, so maybe he’s due a few breaks this week.
Marc Leishman(50/1) e.w.
- - Since my best golf insights have always been built on watching the golf and following the leaderboards, and I can now say I’ve been engaged in following the golf for four straight weeks, I have tried to stick to that approach exclusively in making my plays this week (and it will likely lead to at least one play in-running, like Lingmerth last week) . . . Nevertheless, this is a play I will speculate with, based on research and digging, rather than recent visual impressions and leaderboard tracking.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
- - A confluence of liking what an awesome capper had to say about liking his chances here every year, my own brief observations last week seeming consistent, and attractive value with the odds
Jimmy Walker(30/1) e.w.
- - Since I missed out on getting any plays down in Qatar, I won't skimp on plays for this event if I have a liking. He has at least looked like he knows it's a Ryder Cup season, so maybe a value loser at this price.
Brandt Snedeker(16/1) e.w.
-- How can I not like what I've seen so far this year? I'm just not thrilled with the odds.
GL
